金融英语阅读之2008全球金融危机

TheGlobalFinancialCrisisOf2008 byNicholasA.Vardy 
Hereweareyetagaininthemidstofanother"globaleconomiccrisis."FromthehilltopsofDavos，Switzerland，MorganStanley‘spermabearStephenRoachhasshoutedwarningsofpotentialeconomic"Armageddon."SuperinvestorGeorgeSorosdesignatedthecurrentstateoftheglobaleconomy"theworstmarketcrisisin60years."BillClintonlabeledit"thebiggestfinancialcrisissincetheGreatDepression"——evenasglobalstocksrespondedbyslumping7.7%inJanuary——theworststarttoaninvestingyearsinceMorganStanleybeganpublishingdatainthe1970s. 
Butbeforeyouliquidateyourfinancialassets，buygoldbullion，andmovetoacaveinMontana，youmaywishtoconsiderthatcurrentpredictionsofglobaleconomiccollapsemaybesimplyhyperbole.Ithashappenedbefore.Clinton‘squoteaboveactuallyreferstothecollapseofLongTermCapitalManagementin1998——rightbeforeNASDAQclockedan88%gainin1999.Nordoesthisglobalcrisisstanduptothescrutinyofhistoriccomparison.RemembertheS&Lcrisisintheearly‘80s?ItcosttheU.S.economyabout3.5%ofGDP——about5xthesizeofsubprimewrite-offssofar.Orhowaboutthedarkdaysof1981，whentheFederalReservedroveitskeyinterestrateto19%inanefforttowhipinflation?BillClinton‘s"GreatDepressionof1998"doesn‘tevenmeritmention. 
GlobalFinancialCrisis:TheCurrentStateofPlay 
Comparingeconomicstatisticsisinevitablya"glassishalfempty"versus"glassishalffull"kindofgame.BothPollyannasandCassandrascanmarshalendlessstatisticstosupporttheirversionofevents.Butsinceit‘stheCassandras‘viewsthataretheflavoroftheday，let‘slookatsome"glassishalffull"statisticsontheU.S.economy. 
CompaniesintheU.S.privatesectoradded130，000jobsinJanuaryandtheunemploymentrateeasedto4.9%.TheInstituteforSupplyManagement‘sindexofmanufacturingactivityroseto50.7inJanuary——backabovethe50thresholdthatindicatesexpansionconsistentwithGDPgrowthofroughly2%.Nearly93%（!）ofpurchasingmanagerssaidthatturmoilinfinancialmarketswashavingnoeffectontheircompanies‘abilitytoobtainregularoradditionalfinancing.ThatsituationindicatesthattheturmoilisrestrictedtoWallStreetandsubprimehouseholds. 
True，thatafterriproaringperformancesinQ2andQ3，theU.S.economyhasstumbled.Butalookbehindtheheadlinenumbersisrevealing.Goodnewscamefromtheconsumersector（spendingincreasedby2%），businessinvestment（jumping7.5%），andexports（up3.9%）.Itwasdeclinesinresidentialinvestment（down23.9%）andininventoryinvestmentthatalmostwipedoutthosegains.AllofthisindicatesthattheeconomystandslessattheprecipiceofthenextGreatDepressionthanatacyclicalpurgingofexcesses——particularlyinthehousingsector. 
CardGlobalFinancialCrisis:ProfessorBernanke‘sReport 
Awarethatthefinancialcrisiscouldspreadtoothersectors，theFedhasmovedremarkablyaggressively，cuttingratesby1.25percentagepointsineightdays——arate-cuttingspreealmostunheardofincentralbankinghistory.TheFednowhascutratesfivetimesbyacumulative2.25percentagepoints——andthereisnosignthattheFedisdone.ThankstothemaneuveringsofHankPaulson，GeorgeBushsoonwillsignabillthatwillpumpsome$150billionintotheAmericaneconomyforU.S.consumerstospend.Thatkindofcoordinationbetweenfiscalandmonetaryauthoritiesisasunprecedentedasitisbothpromptandimpressive. 
Sure，theCassandrasarevilifyingtheFed‘sactions.BernankehasbeencriticizedforeverythingfrompanderingtoWallStreettraderstostillbeingbehindthecurve.Butopinionsarelikeanose——everybodyhasone.ThecurrentdinofcriticismagainstBernankeisalotlikebaseballfans，screaming"throwthebumout"atthegameorventingtheirfrustrationsonpost-gameAMradiotalkshows.Butit‘saloteasiertocriticizethantostepuptohomeplateandswingthebat.TherealityisthatfewofBernanke‘smostvitrioliccriticswereevensmartenoughtomakeitintoanintroductoryeconomicsclasstaughtbyBernankeatPrinceton——letalonetoruntheworld‘smostinfluentialCentralBank.AndtoassumethatFedpolicyisbasedonresponsestosuchcriticismwouldbeasabsurdasforbaseballstarAlexRodrigueztowalkoverandhandhisbattoanobnoxious，beer-swillingcriticinthebleachersofYankeeStadiumtotakehisplaceathomeplate.Thankfully，airlinepilotsguidingaplanethroughroughturbulenceplaytoalessvociferouscrowd. 
Here‘sthereality.NeitherBernanke‘sinterestratecutsnorthefederalstimuluspackagelikelywillhitthepolicynailrightonthehead.Butnoreal-timedecisionmakingisperfect.AsJohnMaynardKeynes，himselfanacademicwithplentyofrealworldexperience，observed:"It‘sbettertobeapproximatelyrightthanexactlywrong."TheFedcan‘tstopadownturn，butitcanhelpitbeshortandshallow.Thisisacomplex，fast-changingsituation.Let‘sgivetheFedandtheU.S.governmentsomecreditforactingswiftlyanddecisively. 
GlobalFinancialCrisis:TheInvestmentStrategyoftheWorld‘sTopTraders 
Soarethingsreallythatbad?Whathasgottenlostinthedinisthatcreditmarketshavereturnedtonormal.Foreclosuresareatrecordlevels，butaren‘tasnumerousasoriginallyforecast.AndevenifpolicyresponsesbytheFedonlyslowtherateofdeclineinU.S.housingprices，thatalonewillalreadyhaveadramaticimpactonU.S.economicgrowth.AndtheFedhasshownthatitiswillingtoactquicklytoreversecourseandhikeinterestratesonceitisclearthattheeconomyisthroughthisboutofweakness. 
Uncertaintymeansthatitisreasonabletopullyourhornsinabit——anddiversifyawayfromstocks，emphasizingadiversegroupofassetsthatarelesscorrelatedtothestockmarket.ThetophedgemanagersIknowaremorefocusedonplayingdefenseuntilthedustsettles.Themostbullishsignalisthatinvestorsarealmostuniformlybearish.Anditispreciselyduringperiodsofpanicthatthegreatestfortunesaremade.

发布者：wangshuai0519

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